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# Crowley Leads Tiffany by 7 Among Likely Voters in Final Marquette Poll Before Election
- URL: https://foxwatershed.com/final-marquette-poll-crowley-tiffany-governor/
- Published: 2026-11-02T03:49:09.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-02T03:49:09.000Z
- Description: The last Marquette Law School Poll before Nov. 3 puts Crowley ahead 51% to 44% among likely voters. Less-certain voters lean Tiffany, and Trump's approval in Wisconsin hit a record low.
- Author: Fox Watershed Staff
- Tags: The Midterm Monitor, Wisconsin Politics, Wisconsin State Politics

Democrat David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, leads Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany 51% to 44% among likely voters in the [final Marquette Law School Poll](https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/10/28/mlsp92-press-release/?ref=foxwatershed.com) before Tuesday's election for Wisconsin governor, up from a 49% to 46% edge in September. Among all registered voters the race is tighter, 47% to 44%, with 9% still undecided.

Both leads sit inside the poll's error range. Marquette interviewed 818 registered voters from Oct. 14 to 22, for a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 points, and counted 668 of them as likely voters, plus or minus 4.7 points. The interviews overlapped the [candidates' only debate on Oct. 21](https://wtmj.com/news/2026/10/28/crowley-widens-lead-over-tiffany-in-final-marquette-law-school-poll-before-election-day/?ref=foxwatershed.com).

Plenty of Wisconsinites have already voted. [TMJ4 reported this week](https://www.tmj4.com/news/local-news/wisconsin-sees-early-voting-surge-with-nearly-575-000-ballots-already-returned-ahead-of-election-day?ref=foxwatershed.com) that nearly 575,000 ballots had been returned statewide, about 30,000 more than at the same point four years ago, including nearly 300,000 cast in person. In Brown County, [24,771 absentee ballots were back](https://fox11online.com/news/election/2026-midterm-absentee-voting-wisconsin-ballots-returned-commission-week-before-november-3?ref=foxwatershed.com) a week before Election Day, FOX 11 reported.

## Turnout Is Tiffany's Path

Crowley's lead comes from the voters most sure to show up. Among registered voters who said they were absolutely certain to vote or had already voted, he led 51% to 44%. Among those who called themselves very likely but not certain, Tiffany led 42% to 30%, with 28% undecided.

Poll director Charles Franklin [told WMTV](https://www.wmtv15news.com/2026/10/29/final-marquette-poll-shows-crowley-ahead-tiffany-wisconsin-governors-race/?ref=foxwatershed.com) that gap is "a phenomenon we've seen in the Trump era," when Trump has pulled less-likely voters to his side in presidential races. If Tiffany's campaign gets those supporters to the polls, Franklin [told the Cap Times](https://captimes.com/news/elections/crowley-widens-lead-in-final-marquette-poll-before-nov-3-election/article%5F0994b06c-8b70-4738-be75-6750614c31ca.html?ref=foxwatershed.com), "then we'd see a closer race."

Independents moved toward the Democrat over the past month. Crowley drew 56% of independent likely voters, up from 44% in September, while Tiffany drew 26%, up from 18%. Tiffany also has softness inside his own party. He won 92% of Republican likely voters overall, but among Republicans who disapprove of President Donald Trump he led Crowley only 59% to 25%, with 16% undecided.

Neither candidate is popular. Crowley's ratings stood at 37% favorable and 44% unfavorable, an improvement from 31% and 44% in September. Tiffany's slipped to 40% favorable and 50% unfavorable, from 39% and 45%.

## Trump's Numbers Weigh on Republicans

Trump's job approval among Wisconsin registered voters fell to 37%, with 61% disapproving. Marquette called it a record low approval and record high disapproval for either of his terms. Only 27% of Republicans who don't view the MAGA movement favorably approve of the job he's doing.

Franklin told WMTV that Trump's standing, voters' finances and the war with Iran are all "pushing against Republicans" across the country. Just 16% of Wisconsin voters said they're better off financially than a year ago, while 42% said they're worse off. Only 18% said the war has achieved its goals. Franklin also [cautioned Spectrum News](https://spectrumnews1.com/wi/milwaukee/news/2026/10/28/last-marquette-poll-released?ref=foxwatershed.com) against mapping national trends straight onto Wisconsin. "Those things don't translate exactly," he said.

## Prices Top the Issue List

Inflation and the cost of living led voters' concerns at 48%, up from 45% in September. Illegal immigration and border security came next at 12%, then health insurance at 8%. Ninety-two percent said gas prices rose over the past six months, 85% said grocery prices did, and 67% expect Trump's policies to push inflation higher.

Voters trust Tiffany more on taxes, 42% to 17%, and Crowley more on health care affordability, 39% to 23%, and on education, 44% to 30%. Tiffany's plan for a 10% income tax cut for couples earning $150,000 or less, paired with ending state taxes on tips and overtime, drew 83% support from the half of the sample asked about it. Ending taxes on tips and overtime alone would cost the state about [$2.76 billion from 2028 through 2037](https://www.wpr.org/news/eliminating-state-income-tax-on-tips-overtime-cost-wisconsin?ref=foxwatershed.com), with the largest savings going to workers earning roughly $85,000 to $132,500, according to a Forward Analytics report covered by WPR. Crowley's campaign has said he would sign such a bill if the Legislature passed one.

Voters split almost evenly, 50% to 49%, on Tiffany's plan to hand the entire state budget surplus back to taxpayers instead of using it for state and local services. Crowley's proposed constitutional amendment guaranteeing a right to abortion drew 62% support among registered voters, including 60% of independents and 31% of Republicans.

Data centers rank low as a top issue, named by 4%, but 75% of voters said their costs outweigh their benefits. Thirty-two percent trust Crowley more on data centers, 25% trust Tiffany, and 42% see no difference. On trade, 67% oppose new tariffs on Canadian goods, and 70% said tariffs are hurting Wisconsin farmers.

## What Comes Next

The attorney general's race barely registers with voters. Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul was rated 23% favorable and 20% unfavorable, with 56% saying they haven't heard enough, and Republican challenger Eric Toney, the Fond du Lac County district attorney, was at 13% and 13%, with 72% unfamiliar, [FOX 11 reported](https://fox11online.com/news/political/2026-wisconsin-gubernatorial-race-midterm-election-marquette-university-law-school-poll-david-crowley-tom-tiffany?ref=foxwatershed.com).

Final polls don't settle Wisconsin races. Marquette's last survey of 2022 had Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Tim Michels [tied at 48% among likely voters](https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2022/final-pre-election-marquette-law-poll-finds-both-senate-and-governor-races-are-tossups.php?ref=foxwatershed.com), and Evers won by about 3 points, [according to WPR's results](https://www.wpr.org/politics/election-results-wisconsin-governor-tony-evers-tim-michels?ref=foxwatershed.com).

In-person absentee voting [runs through Nov. 1](https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2026/10/20/early-in-person-voting-in-wisconsin-begins-tuesday/?ref=foxwatershed.com), with hours and sites set by each municipality and posted at MyVote.WI.gov. Mailed absentee ballots must reach local clerks by 8 p.m. on Election Day, Nov. 3, to be counted.